Код: 317446

Назва:

Теорія макроекономічних та політичних ризиків країн

Анотація: The course is designed to acquaint NAUKMA master students with the main components of professional risk analysis on macrolevel using the latest technologies and latest trends in the world economy, and to obtain basic research skills, primarily using scenario approaches. Based on the results of the education, master students will be able to understand the spans of macroeconomic and political risks and challenges for investment return, primarily on emerging markets; how the sudden change of the current stay of play influences on the level sovereign, transfer, convertibility and geopolitical risks. Students will be able to apply comparative country risk techniques and indicators for future scientific work and practice and use the early warning systems of indicators to predict individual country (mainly emerging markets) development from the strategic investors point of view and global shifts, caused by the risk spike in those countries. The class discussion on current economic and political trends on emerging markets is a must, which is a crucial element of learning process. Students must read, in addition to the assignments, The Economist magazine every week and are also encouraged to read the current local economic and political professional news. Students are thus required to complete the assigned readings for each day prior to class and are strongly encouraged to participate actively in class discussions.

Тип дисципліни: вибіркова

Рік навчання: 2

Семестр: 3

Кількість кредитів: 3

Форма контролю: залік

Викладач(і): Доц., д.е.н. Григор`єв Г.С.

Результати навчання: РR 1.Scientific analysis and synthesis of the problem of global risks (macroeconomic, political and sectoral)
РR 2. Adoption of optimal management decisions in the field of macroeconomic planning and with the management of macroeconomic and political risks in the country
РR 3. Professional communication between national and foreign partners.
PR 4. Strategic and operational management of projects for the revealing of all types of risks and social turning points
PR 5. Adherence to the principles of academic integrity, including when creating analytical reports on country risks.
PR 6. Selection of methods of scientific research, data of rating agencies and government research for assessing the macroeconomic and political risks of the country on the basis of a systemic approach and interaction with economic agents.
PR 7. Integration of individual work into teamwork and development of leadership qualities in the process of work for the purpose of managing the collective risk of countries.
PR 8. Collection, processing and analysing statistical data, scientific and analytical materials, necessary for solving complex economic tasks to converge economic and geopolitical risks
PR 9. Taking into account global trends in the development of the economy and to be aware of the place and role of the national in it and to determine the risks of countries based on the dynamics of economic, institutional, social and geopolitical phenomena.
PR 10. Use of software to take into account the risks of dynamic changes in risks (Stella Architect, Vensim)
PR 11. Determination of the current state of risks in systems with the help of simulation models, taking into account the elements of mathematical probability and scenario approaches.
PR 12. Justification of economic decisions regarding risks, taking into account limited economic resources and chaotic uneven fluctuations of the modern global economy.
PR 13. Analysis of short-term and long-term causes and consequences of mana

Спосіб навчання: аудиторний

Необхідні обовязкові попередні й супутні модулі: Міжнародна економіка, Макроекономіка

Зміст дисципліни: This course is designed to provide students with practical experience in economic science research approaches and tools. We will explore tools that can help identify, analyse, and understand a range of macroeconomic and geopolitical phenomena, as related to appropriate types of risk. The focus will be on tackling important questions in international economic relations and developing problem-solving skills necessary to address them, including both quantitative and qualitative(mainly) approaches. Macroeconomic and political risks in general reflects the ability of national economy to affect negatively on the strategic decisions of foreign agents (foreign investors and other foreign agents). The process of risk elimination, or at least its substantial mitigation is of great interest to explain for economic agents, government, and educational institutions. This course is targeted to develop students’ skills to be well – prepared in conducting a research in the field of macroeconomic and political risks. The global economic challenges for emerging markets, their economic agents, and exponentially growing challenges for them on political arena have created a new wave of demand in the sphere of risk consulting. The main object of the study course “Macroeconomic and political theory of country risks” (further – CR) is the combination of theory, practice, and case studies (geopolitical scenario approach) for evaluation of macroeconomic and political risks across emerging markets and their industries for the benefits of banking sector, multinational industries and government. The presented course is a combination of macroeconomic and political (esp. geopolitical) risks evaluation. The students will have the opportunity to be in the role of macroeconomic and political risk experts (risk consulters) which would help them in their future scientific, business, or public service career. The focus of this year theoretical and empirical analysis is on the current lobal Food Problem, caused mainly by Russian aggression in Ukraine and breaking of a huge export supply from Ukraine to emerging markets with an unpredictable long – run effects, has determined the choice of the research topic this year: "Macroeconomic and geopolitical aspects risks of the global food crisis". The main questions, which students should answer at the end of studying: “Which country from selected group to choose from the point of view of strategic actor (investor, exporter, international organisations – etc.) after taking into account the macroeconomic and geopolitical risks, which have been learned?”. The side effects of the shortage of import on acceptor of investment are also to be considered. In this regard it is recommended to apply, among others, system dynamics methods of simulation, which have been taught on Master – 1 level of education. Some references to application of system dynamics in CRA are provided below.


Рекомендована література: Bouchet M., Fishkin C.A., Gougel A. (2018). Managing country risk in an age of globalization. A practical guide to overcoming challenges in a complex world.
Journal of risk management in financial institutions– articles
Geopolitcs - articles
World financial review- articles
Journal of International Economics - articles
International Country Risk Guide (ICRG)
The Economist - articles
Other resources:
Мовчан В. (2022)_ Роль України в глобальному постачанні продовольства — дослідження. Інститут економічних досліджень та політичних консультацій.
http://www.ier.com.ua/ua/institute/news?pid=6949
Abante A.M.R. (2021)_Geophilosophical?realness of?risk: a case study in national housing authority resettlement sites in Albay, Philippines?- SN Applied Sciences, 2021 – Springer
Abbott Philip_ Recent Global Food Price Shocks: Causes, Consequences and Lessons for African Governments and Donors. Journal of African Economies, Volume 20, Issue suppl_1, May 2011, Pages i12–i62.
Abdolshah, F., Moshiri, S., Worthington, A. Macroeconomic shocks and credit?risk?stress testing the Iranian banking sector. Journal of economic studies (Bradford), 2021, Vol.48 (2), p.275-295
Agnello, L.; Castro, V.; Sousa, R. M_ A competing?risks?tale on successful and unsuccessful?fiscal?consolidations. Journal of international financial markets, institutions & money, 2019, Vol.63.
Addison E.K.Y. (2004) _ The macroeconomic impact of remittances
Arnold M., Smith C., Giles C. (2022). Central banks chiefs call end to era of low rates and moderate inflation https://www.ft.com/content/0c686df6-823b-49c2-bf0e-80e119d9e80a
Ahrend Rudiger., Arnold Jens Matthias.,Moeser Charlotte (2011,July) _The Sharing of Macroeconomic Risk Who Loses (and Gains) from Macroeconomic Shock. OECD Economic Department Working Papers
Alfaro L., Kanczuk F. (2019). Undisclosed debt sustainability. National Bureau of Economic Research. Working paper. 26347
Ashraf B.N.,Arshad S.,Yan L. (2017) _Trade

Форми та методи навчання: лекції, семінари, обговорення, кейси

Методи й критерії оцінювання: The mains components to be considered during the seminars are macroeconomic and geopolitical risks with added financial and institutional aspects. Substantive answers, tasks solving, current news presentation Full answers for all questions. Full answers for all questions. Paperwork is prepared in a written form by the suggested standard. Substantive answers, tasks solving, current news presentation Full answers for all questions. Full answers for all questions. Paperwork is prepared in a written form by the suggested standard. Substantive answers, tasks solving, current news presentation Full answers for all questions. Full answers for all questions. Paperwork is prepared in a written form by the suggested standard. Teamwork writing and defence means that students are united in groups. Each of this group consists of 3 persons.

Мова навчання: англійська